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Military··Severity 9

Houthi attacks expose gaps in Pakistan's defence pact with Saudi Arabia

Houthi attacks expose gaps in Pakistan's defence pact with Saudi Arabia After positioning itself as a regional mediator by facilitating talks between Washington and Tehran, Pakistan marked a major milestone in its expanding diplomacy last month: the signing of a trilateral defence pact with Saudi Arabia and Turkey in Islam’s holiest city.

Signed in Mecca on 7 August, the Joint Defence Agreement states that an attack on one signatory will be treated as an attack on all, drawing immediate comparisons to Nato’s Article 5, even as analysts cautioned against taking the clause too literally.

That commitment was quickly tested on 8 September, when Iran-backed Houthi forces launched a massive drone and missile barrage into Saudi Arabia, striking critical military and energy infrastructure.

Overnight, an abstract commitment turned into a high-stakes operational question. Neither Islamabad nor Ankara launched military counter-operations alongside Riyadh, choosing firm diplomatic statements instead.

Read more: Houthi attacks expose gaps in Pakistan's defence pact with Saudi Arabia Left to right: Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif posing after signing the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement in Mecca, Saudi Arabia, on 7 August 2026 (Handout/Pakistan prime minister's office/AFP)

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

80%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: Middle East Eye

Ваши вероятности A/B/C

C 33%

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