Geopolitical··Severity 9
Russian strike on train "terror knocking on EU's door'
The Kremlin said on Monday it would keep striking targets across the "whole" of Ukraine, when asked about a rare drone attack on the Polish border that has rattled Warsaw and its European allies.
NATO-member Poland said on Sunday that Russia had hit a railway locomotive inside Ukraine, about two kilometres (one mile) from their shared border, just days after Kyiv said it had hit a crossing at its border with Moldova.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
80%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: France24
Ваши вероятности A/B/C
C 33%
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