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Military··Severity 8

Why the Mecca defence pact hasn’t triggered action against the Houthis

Why the Mecca defence pact hasn’t triggered action against the Houthis Turkey, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have faced criticism almost immediately after signing the Mecca joint defence agreement last month, with questions raised about the newly formed alliance’s lack of response to Houthi attacks launched from Yemen against Saudi Arabia.

From the day after the signing ceremony, experts questioned whether Ankara would come to Riyadh’s aid as the Houthis targeted energy infrastructure and civilian areas in the kingdom.

The group’s takeover of stretches of Yemen’s coast near the Bab al-Mandeb Strait over the weekend, followed by attacks on the East-West Pipeline, which carries nearly 4 percent of the global oil supply, intensified the controversy.

However, judging the pact solely by the absence of an immediate joint military response overlooks several distinct questions: whether its defence obligations have entered into force, whether its members have built the mechanisms to implement them, and whether they are demonstrating sufficient political solidarity.

A senior Turkish official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Middle East Eye that criticism portraying the alliance as already failing was disingenuous and intended to belittle it.

Read more: Why the Mecca defence pact hasn’t triggered action against the Houthis

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

72%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: Middle East Eye

Ваши вероятности A/B/C

C 33%

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