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Military··Severity 8

How Okinawa’s political shift could make Japan more prepared for a Taiwan contingency

Okinawa’s election on Sunday of a governor backed by Japan’s ruling party ended 12 years of local leadership opposed to the relocation of a US airbase and elements of Tokyo’s defence build-up plans.

While experts say that Genta Koja’s victory will not give Tokyo any new military authority in the region, it could lead to closer integration of civilian infrastructure into Japan’s defence network in case of a conflict – including one over Taiwan.

Koja’s election would give Tokyo “room to expand its...

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

69%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: South China Morning Post

Ваши вероятности A/B/C

C 33%

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