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Geopolitical··Severity 9

‘Doing a North Korea’? Why the Middle East could be entering a new nuclear age

The Middle East stands on the precipice of a new nuclear age, with Saudi Arabia set to acquire American uranium enrichment technology and Turkey eager to follow suit, as Iran weighs withdrawal from the treaty that bars it from making atomic bombs.

Momentum is building: last week, the United States and Israel both threatened further air strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities, claiming it was attempting to resurrect the programme.

The country’s three main complexes were buried deep underground...

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

78%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: South China Morning Post

Ваши вероятности A/B/C

C 33%

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