Geopolitical··Severity 8
Two sailors missing after tanker attacked in Strait of Hormuz, Oman says
Iran says El Gaia caught fire after hitting mines, but the US says the oil tanker was struck by a missile and then a drone.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
67%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: BBC World
Ваши вероятности A/B/C
C 33%
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