Geopolitical··Severity 9
First Hormuz, now the Red Sea? Oil spikes as Saudis sucked into Yemen spiral
First, there was Donald Trump’s surprise decision to strike Iran. Then, came the quagmire of a war without an exit strategy.
Now, six months later, with access to the Gulf all but shut… global shipping holding its breath over the other end of the Arabian Peninsula.
Saudi Arabia drawn back into Yemen as Iran-backed Houthis threaten access to the Red Sea.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
78%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: France24
Ваши вероятности A/B/C
C 33%
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