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Economic··Severity 7

Will Be 'Extremely Difficult' For The FOMC To Not Raise Rates Says Richards

Bond traders are pricing in a Federal Reserve interest-rate hike Wednesday with a level of conviction that has proven right for decades.

Interest-rate swaps tied to Fed meeting dates show traders see more than a 90% chance that Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh and his colleagues will lift the benchmark policy rate by a quarter point from the current 3.5%-3.75% range.

That equates to roughly 23 basis points of tightening priced in. Kitty Richards Senior Fellow at the Groundwork Collaborative joined Balance of Power saying it will be difficult for the Fed to not raise rates.

(Source: Bloomberg)

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

38%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: Bloomberg Markets

Ваши вероятности A/B/C

C 33%

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