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Economic··Severity 7

How Canada’s Trump headache is fuelling a China trade boom

Canada’s exports to China jumped by 30.1 per cent in the first half of 2026, led by crude oil, copper and other energy and mineral products, as Ottawa stepped up efforts to diversify trade ties amid growing tensions with its largest trading partner, the United States.

Exports to China reached C$21.74 billion (US$15.63 billion) over the period, marking the highest first-half value since 1997, according to a trade report released by the Canada China Business Council and the China Institute at the...

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

40%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: South China Morning Post

Ваши вероятности A/B/C

C 33%

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