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Geopolitical··Severity 8

Why Trump’s Israel Normalization Demand May Kill the Saudi Nuclear Deal

Only days after the Trump administration celebrated what it called a landmark civilian nuclear agreement with Saudi Arabia, the president himself appeared to place the entire arrangement in jeopardy. In a Truth Social post, President Donald Trump declared the deal “totally subject” to Saudi Arabia joining the Abraham Accords and normalizing with Israel — a condition absent from the administration’s own announcement barely a day earlier. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt then confirmed that, without normalization, “the deal is off.”The reversal was striking not simply because it resurrected a condition Washington had already concluded was ineffective, as Saudi Arabia The post Why Trump’s Israel Normalization Demand May Kill the Saudi Nuclear Deal appeared first on War on the Rocks .

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

55%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: War on the Rocks

Ваши вероятности A/B/C

C 33%

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