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Military··Severity 9

Managed Instability: Why the Wars Against Iran and Ukraine Can Go On and On and On…

The Iran war is beginning to resemble the Ukraine war in one important way. Operationally, the wars themselves are still very different — Ukraine is a large-scale ground invasion, while the Iran war is not there just yet. But their political logic after a failure to achieve a quick result is starting to look very similar. In both cases, a larger power expected its overwhelming military force to produce a quick political result. And in both cases, that expectation failed.The targeted state adapted, outside supporters helped it remain afloat, and both conflicts moved from the promise of a decisive outcome The post Managed Instability: Why the Wars Against Iran and Ukraine Can Go On and On and On… appeared first on War on the Rocks .

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

80%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: War on the Rocks

Ваши вероятности A/B/C

C 33%

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