Geopolitical··Severity 8
IAEA board refers Iran to UN Security Council over nuclear ‘non-compliance’
The symbolic escalation has been initiated by the United States, Germany, France and the United Kingdom.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
68%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: Al Jazeera
Ваши вероятности A/B/C
C 33%
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