Geopolitical··Severity 8
Serbia, the conflicted EU candidate
On paper, Belgrade has pursued EU membership for years. But accession has long been stalled.
The hero's farewell given to war criminal Mladic exposed just how far Serbia has alienated itself from Europe.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
64%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: DW World
Ваши вероятности A/B/C
C 33%
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