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Fed’s Bowman Says Too Soon to Judge Iran War Inflation Impact

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Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman said, “I would like to have more clarity on the economic impacts from the conflict in the Middle East and the durability of those effects,” and thinks it’s too soon to judge the inflationary impact from the Iran war. Bowman said Friday at a central banking conference in Iceland that that policymakers need to look through temporary price shocks. (Source: Bloomberg)

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BOE May Bear Temporary Above-Target Inflation to Support UK, Bailey Says

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The Bank of England could temporarily tolerate inflation staying above its 2% target in order to support the UK’s weak economy, Governor Andrew Bailey said, so long as second-round price effects do not emerge. “Given the context of softness in the real economy and uncertainty around the scale and duration of the shock, tolerating temporarily above-target inflation to provide some support for the real economy is an appropriate way to approach the trade-off,” Bailey said at an economic conference in Reykjavík, Iceland. (Source: Bloomberg)

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Glass Jaw? The New Economic Fragility Recasting American Power

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A pair of children’s shoes is an odd place to look for the changing dynamics of American power. But stick with me because, after the past year, it is one of the clearest places to see them. Long before those shoes reach a store shelf, tariffs have raised the cost of materials, components, and importation. Oil touches nearly everything else: synthetic fabrics, foam, adhesives, packaging, and freight. When both shocks arrive together, companies cut margins, cut orders, cheapen materials, delay investment, and eventually pass the pain on to consumers. Now, multiply that across the economy, and you start to see the The post Glass Jaw? The New Economic Fragility Recasting American Power appeared first on War on the Rocks.

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Global Market Today: Asian stocks rise on US-Iran truce deal, oil drops

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Asian markets saw gains as oil prices fell following a tentative US-Iran ceasefire extension. This development eased concerns about energy flow disruptions. Optimism surrounding artificial intelligence also boosted stock markets. However, rising inflation and a cooling economy present challenges for investors. The Federal Reserve's flexibility is limited by persistent price pressures, impacting interest rate decisions.

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‘Transitory euphoria’: South Korea’s strong economic outlook masks key hurdles

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South Korea’s economy faces uncertainties from rising inflation, a weakening won and uneven performance across sectors, even as it grows stronger than expected this year, according to analysts. The Bank of Korea on Thursday revised its economic growth outlook for this year to 2.6 per cent, up 0.6 percentage points from its forecast three months ago, citing robust exports driven by booming semiconductor demand and government supplementary spending aimed at offsetting the shocks from the Middle...

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Oil prices to hit $150? How Indian stock markets may react as Iran war rages on

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Oil prices have surged past $100 per barrel amid escalating Iran–Israel tensions and fears of a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key global energy chokepoint. Analysts warn crude could climb to $150 if disruptions persist, raising inflation risks and pressuring Indian equities, which have already seen sharp declines amid foreign outflows, rupee weakness and energy supply concerns.

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Modi charisma key factor in BJP's bid to retain all 26 seats in Gujarat

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Gujarat's upcoming Lok Sabha elections are influenced by PM Narendra Modi's charisma, anti-incumbency, unemployment, inflation, education, healthcare challenges, and BJP's endeavor to secure all 26 seats. ​​Lok Sabha polls in Gujarat will be held in a single phase on May 7. Counting of votes will be held on June 4. Anti-incumbency, unemployment, inflation, education and healthcare facilities are some of the other important issues in the election, where the ruling BJP in Gujarat will attempt to retain all the 26 Lok Sabha seats it won in 2019.

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Why CEA Anantha Nageswaran says India is facing a ‘Live Balance of Payments Stress Test’

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India faces significant external sector challenges due to rising oil prices, foreign investor exits, and a weakening rupee. Chief Economic Advisor V. Anantha Nageswaran describes this as a "live balance of payments stress test," highlighting pressure on imports, currency stability, and foreign exchange flows. The situation is exacerbated by heavy oil import dependence and regional geopolitical tensions.

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US key inflation gauge worsens, eroding Americans’ income and spending power

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A key inflation gauge accelerated in April to the highest level in three years, the latest sign that spiking gas prices and higher food costs are squeezing Americans’ finances. Inflation jumped to 3.8 per cent in April compared with a year ago, the Commerce Department said on Thursday, up from 3.5 per cent in March and the highest since May 2023. On a monthly basis, prices rose 0.4 per cent, down from the 0.7 per cent jump in March. The report showed that prices have risen for many items in...

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For a yuan in deeper markets, Fed ex-president cites dollar playbook amid risks, criticism

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China has a unique window to internationalise its currency by deepening domestic financial markets, according to a former senior US central bank official who pointed to the evolution of the US dollar and the euro for lessons to be gleaned. The comments from Charles Evans, former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, provide a fresh perspective in the growing discussion over whether and how the world’s second-largest economy can transform the yuan into a global currency. Speaking on...

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US farmers seek firmer soybean guarantees despite Xi-Trump agriculture pledge

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Across the vast United States, soybean farmers caught in the crossfire of the US-China trade war hoped for a deal on the crop when US President Donald Trump met with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping. There was optimism after the two presidents met in Busan, South Korea, in October, when China committed to increased soybean purchases. This time, however, Trump left Beijing without any concrete agricultural announcements, much less one about US farmers’ biggest export. Instead, a general...

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